What is Vulnerability Intelligence?
Vulnerability intelligence is the strategic process of identifying, analyzing, and prioritizing software and system weaknesses before attackers can exploit them. It transforms raw vulnerability data into actionable insights by adding context:
Which systems are affected?
How severe is the risk?
Who’s exploiting it, and how?
And most importantly: What should you fix first?
In fact, exploitation of vulnerabilities nearly tripled as an initial access method in 2023, according to Group-IB’s Hi-Tech Crime Trends report. And the curve isn’t flattening; 2024 has already seen a 30% increase in newly discovered vulnerabilities across enterprise and consumer software.
But knowing about a CVE (Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures) is only the first step. Modern vulnerability intelligence goes deeper:
- It maps vulnerabilities to real-world threats: Is this flaw already weaponized in the wild? Is it being discussed in dark web forums or exploited in recent ransomware campaigns?
- It prioritizes based on threat actor behavior: If a vulnerability is actively used by a known APT group or cybercriminal syndicate, it moves up the priority list.
- It considers your specific environment: A critical vulnerability in software you don’t use? Not urgent. A medium-severity flaw in a crucial server you rely on daily? That’s high risk.
Types of Vulnerability Intelligence
Here are the different types of vulnerability intelligence:
1. Raw Vulnerability Feeds
These are the foundational data points pulled from official databases like the National Vulnerability Database (NVD) or vendor advisories (e.g., Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle). They typically include CVE (Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures) identifiers, severity scores (like CVSS), and basic descriptions.
For example, CVE-2023-23397 – a Microsoft Outlook privilege escalation vulnerability disclosed via a raw feed. On paper, it might seem just “critical,” but without added context, it’s hard to gauge whether it’s being exploited or who it’s affecting.
Limitation: Raw feeds alone don’t tell you if the vulnerability is being exploited, or by whom. They’re like fire alarms with no indication of whether the fire is in your building or across town.
2. Exploit Intelligence
This layer goes deeper by tracking whether there’s a working exploit available, either in public exploit repositories like ExploitDB, GitHub, or privately on dark web forums and Telegram channels.
For example, CVE-2021-44228, better known as Log4Shell, had a working proof-of-concept exploit available on GitHub within hours of disclosure. Threat actors weaponized it in mass campaigns almost instantly.
3. Threat Contextualized Intelligence
This is where vulnerability data gets operationalized. It connects specific vulnerabilities to real-world attacks, known threat actors, or malware families.
For example, CVE-2017-0199 was widely used by APT28 (Fancy Bear) in targeted spear-phishing campaigns. This vulnerability in Microsoft Office allowed malicious documents to execute arbitrary code. Knowing who is using a vulnerability, and how, helps prioritize responses more accurately than severity ratings alone.
Group-IB’s Threat Intelligence often correlates CVEs to active campaigns by tracking malware clusters, TTPs (tactics, techniques, and procedures), and actor fingerprints. This allows security teams to understand not just what is vulnerable, but who is likely to strike.
4. Patch Intelligence
Patch intelligence evaluates patch availability, reliability, and potential side effects that could disrupt business operations. This prevents the “patch now, regret later” scenario.
For example, Microsoft’s patch for CVE-2022-26809 (a critical RPC vulnerability) was released promptly, but applying it caused compatibility issues with legacy systems. Some organizations delayed patching due to potential downtime risks.
5. Zero-Day Intelligence
This is the elite tier, intelligence on vulnerabilities that are being exploited but are not yet public. It often comes from dark web monitoring, honeypots, or exclusive research.
For example, in 2021, Google TAG uncovered a commercial surveillance vendor exploiting five zero-day vulnerabilities across Chrome, Android, and iOS. The actors behind these campaigns targeted journalists and political activists.
Vulnerability Intelligence Lifecycle
Let’s break down the vulnerability intelligence lifecycle into its three core stages:
1. Vulnerability Discovery
Discovery is the phase where previously unknown software flaws come to light, either through responsible researchers, bug bounty hunters, internal audits, or, unfortunately, cybercriminals.
There are two main types of discoveries:
- Public – CVEs reported to the National Vulnerability Database (NVD), or disclosed by vendors through advisories.
- Private – Found in dark web forums, private Telegram groups, or traded in exploit markets long before the public knows they exist. This is where HUMINT and threat intel providers shine.
2. Vulnerability Research
Once a vulnerability is discovered, the next step is digging deeper. What exactly does this flaw allow an attacker to do? Is it theoretical, or can it be practically exploited in the wild?
Security researchers and threat intelligence teams assess:
- Exploitability: Can this be used for RCE (Remote Code Execution), privilege escalation, or lateral movement?
- Affected systems: Is it hitting legacy systems, cloud platforms, or widely used software like Apache or Microsoft Exchange?
- Proof of Concept (PoC): Is there public code available? Is it shared privately? Who’s using it?
3. Vulnerability Analysis
You’ve found the flaw, and you know it’s exploitable, but is it dangerous to you?
This final phase is where raw technical data is enriched with context to determine risk:
- Are threat actors actively exploiting it in the wild?
- Is there chatter about it on underground markets or forums?
- Does it match the TTPs of a known APT group or ransomware gang?
- Have similar vulnerabilities been abused before?
This is also where security teams must prioritize patching, guided by threat intelligence. A low CVSS score might hide a significant threat if an active campaign is using it. Conversely, a critical-severity CVE might not be urgent if there’s no known exploit or targeting activity.
Steps to Use Vulnerability Intelligence
Here’s how to put it to work:
1. Collect High-Fidelity Data from Reliable Sources
Start by aggregating data from diverse sources like public CVE repositories, vendor advisories, threat research blogs, underground forums, and private intelligence reports. This gives you a comprehensive view of both known and emerging threats.
Group-IB’s Threat Intelligence platform aggregates vulnerability data from both surface web and covert sources like dark web markets and closed Telegram channels, enriching it with context and adversary attribution.
2. Contextualize the Data
Raw CVEs aren’t enough. You need to know: Is this being exploited in the wild? Is it linked to a known APT? Context is critical to separate theoretical risk from real-world danger.
Group-IB Advantage: The platform correlates vulnerabilities with real-world threat actor TTPs (tactics, techniques, and procedures), offering intelligence on who’s exploiting what, and where.
3. Prioritize Based on Business Risk
This step is where most companies mess up. Just because something is labeled “critical” doesn’t mean it’s your top priority.
Ask yourself:
- Is this vulnerability in an internet-facing system?
- Are we using the vulnerable software?
- Is this something attackers are exploiting in my industry?
Group-IB Insight: The platform provides threat scores based on active exploitation trends, industry targeting patterns, and threat actor behavior, giving you a business-aligned risk lens.
4. Enrich with Exploit and Patch Intelligence
Knowing an exploit exists, or that a patch breaks key functionality, can make or break your response strategy.
Group-IB Edge: It enriches vulnerability records with exploit availability (both public and underground), threat actor chatter, and known patch side-effects, so you avoid patching blind.
5. Patch, Isolate, or Monitor
Once intelligence is validated and prioritized, it’s time to act. Patch when feasible. When not, consider virtual patching, segmentation, or increased monitoring.
Group-IB Tools: Group-IB Managed XDR and Detection & Response tools help implement custom detection logic based on threat intelligence feeds.
6. Report and Refine
Log the actions taken. Use this to refine your vulnerability management lifecycle, feed data back into your SIEM/SOAR systems, and improve automation.
Group-IB Value: Group-IB supports security orchestration by integrating with your existing SIEM/SOAR tools, streamlining intelligence-based vulnerability response.